Reforms and External Imbalances : The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa / Rabah Arezki.

World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continueat a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflectsa contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the mediumterm, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as wellas reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficientto change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the regionout of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent currentaccount deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region'sability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversalsin capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivityare urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providingexamples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, andstate-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.

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