World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, Spring 2020 : Preparedness and Vulnerabilities/ Global Reverberations of COVID-19.

Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed sharply in 2020Q1 because of the negative impact of the Covid-19 on economic activity. The decline has been broad-based reflecting the interconnectedness of the EAP economies and reverberations from the global economy as the virus turned into a pandemic. The Covid-19 outbreak followed an extended period of subdued growth in the region amid multiple external headwinds and heightened trade policy uncertainty. China and other regional economies have implemented monetary and fiscal policy measures to mitigate the negative impact of the outbreak. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is projected to slow from 5.8 percent in 2019 to lower-than-expected [5.2 percent in 2020], reflecting the expected negative effects of the COVID-19. In this baseline scenario, which is subject to significant uncertainty, growth in the region is expected to recover to [5.6 percent in 2021], as the impact of Covid-19 gradually dissipates. In the medium-term regional growth is expected to continue its downward trend reflecting multiple structural headwinds. Policymakers should focus on designing economically efficient transmission control policies that consider both the marginal costs and the marginal benefits of preventive measures. Such policies would ideally be based on countries' preparedness and exposure as well as economic circumstances. Targeted fiscal and monetary polices can help reduce the economic disruption caused by COVID-19 in the short term. In the medium-term, there is need to restore depleted buffers, address sources of financial instability, and invest in preventing and coping with infectious disease. Given the growing interdependence between EAP countries, coordinated policies and investments could increase resilience to shocks.

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